MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES (MAA)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

MAA Beats Core FFO as Leasing Trends Show Early Recovery Signs

February 4, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) delivered Q4 2025 results that beat Core FFO expectations, with management striking an optimistic tone about the emerging recovery cycle. While Same Store revenue remained under pressure from elevated new supply, blended lease pricing showed a 40 basis point improvement versus the prior year — a sign that the worst of the supply headwinds may be behind them.

The stock rose +2.2% in aftermarket trading to $136.47, extending the regular session gain of +1.5%.

Did MAA Beat Earnings?

Yes — MAA beat on the metric that matters most for REITs.

The dramatic EPS decline reflects a $53 million legal settlement accrual — a one-time item excluded from Core FFO. Management emphasized Core FFO of $2.23 was "in line with expectations," matching Q4 2024 exactly despite the challenging supply environment.

What Did Management Guide?

MAA provided initial 2026 guidance that reflects cautious optimism — a modest decline in Core FFO offset by improving fundamentals in the back half of the year.

The biggest headwind to 2026 earnings is interest expense — projected to increase $0.25/share due to development completions, acquisition financing, and debt refinancing. This is partially offset by $0.19/share of NOI accretion from development and lease-up communities stabilizing.

For Q1 2026 specifically, MAA guided Core FFO of $2.05-$2.17 (midpoint $2.11), down from $2.23 in Q4 due to seasonal factors and overhead timing.

How Did the Stock React?

MAA shares closed at $135.05, up +1.5% on the day, and extended gains to $136.47 (+2.2%) in aftermarket trading. The stock is trading at:

• 16.0x forward FFO (based on $8.53 guidance midpoint)
• 4.5% dividend yield ($6.12 annual dividend)
• -22% from 52-week high of $173.38

The positive reaction suggests investors are buying the recovery thesis. With new construction starts at multi-year lows, the supply/demand balance should materially improve through 2026-2027.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

The key positive: Blended lease pricing improved 40 basis points year-over-year, from -2.1% in Q4 2024 to -1.7% in Q4 2025. This is the first meaningful sequential improvement after quarters of pressure.

New CEO Brad Hill noted: "We are encouraged by the improving occupancy and blended pricing trends we continue to see, reflecting the resilience of our platform and supporting a constructive outlook for leasing fundamentals heading into 2026."

What Is Management's Outlook?

Management struck their most optimistic tone in several quarters, citing multiple tailwinds:

Supply Relief Is Here: New supply deliveries are "still elevated by historical standards" but decelerating. Management expects 2026 deliveries to drop below long-term averages, with 2027 even lower.

Demand Remains Solid: Resident turnover hit a historic low of 40.2%, with only 11.1% of move-outs related to home purchases. High mortgage rates and single-family home prices continue to support apartment demand.

New Lease Pricing Recovery: Management expects "new lease price recovery" as market conditions tighten, with revenue performance "strengthening throughout the year."

Capital Allocation Highlights

Development Pipeline: 8 projects with 2,522 total units and $932M expected cost. $306M remains to be funded. Five projects completing in 2026, with stabilizations extending through 2029.

Acquisitions: Acquired land parcels in Kansas City and Phoenix for future development. Closed on Northern Virginia land parcel in January 2026 for a 287-unit development starting H2 2026.

Share Buybacks: Repurchased 0.2M shares at $131.61 average ($27M total) in Q4 2025.

Balance Sheet: Net Debt/EBITDA of 4.3x (up from 4.0x YoY). Issued $400M of 7-year notes at 4.65% coupon. Expanded revolving credit facility to $1.5B with maturity extended to January 2030.

Key Geographic Performance

Austin remains the weakest market, with Same Store NOI down 12.2% YoY due to significant new supply. Average effective rent declined 4.6% to $1,497. In contrast, Atlanta led the portfolio with 4.3% NOI growth despite being the largest market.

Risks and Concerns

1. Interest Rate Sensitivity: With $0.25/share of interest expense headwind baked into 2026 guidance, any delay in Fed rate cuts could pressure earnings further.

2. Legal Costs: The $53M legal settlement in Q4 2025 (plus $61.9M for full year) is a material drag. Management hasn't provided clarity on whether additional settlements may be forthcoming.

3. New Lease Pricing Still Deeply Negative: At -8.1%, new lease rates remain under significant pressure. Renewal strength (+4.7%) is keeping blended rates afloat, but new lease recovery is critical to Same Store revenue improvement.

4. Economic Uncertainty: Management acknowledged "economic uncertainty persists" while maintaining confidence in long-term fundamentals.

The Bottom Line

MAA delivered a clean beat on Core FFO while showing early signs that the apartment leasing cycle is turning. The 40 basis point improvement in blended lease pricing, combined with historic-low resident turnover and declining new supply, supports management's thesis that 2026 will be a transitional year before accelerating growth in 2027.

The 2026 guidance decline of 2.4% is driven almost entirely by interest expense — not fundamental weakness. If the Fed cuts rates and new supply continues to moderate, there's upside to the guidance range.

Key catalysts to watch: Spring leasing season (Q2 2026), new lease pricing trajectory, and Fed rate policy.

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MAA will host its Q4 2025 earnings conference call on February 5, 2026 at 9:00 AM CT.

Related: MAA Company Overview | Q3 2025 Earnings | Q4 2025 Transcript